Brexit to win 60/40

I’m a supporter of remaining in the EU – but I’m convinced we’re going to vote leave. Why? Because vast swathes of the population have HAD ENOUGH – and their political leaders have failed to reflect that frustration. In effect they are doing what this scene from ‘Network’ – a 70s film – proposed: going to the window and shouting ‘I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take it any more’ The polls are wrong because they are assuming that there will be the normal turnout amongst these groups, who tend not to bother with elections because they’ve long realised that it won’t change anything, and they don’t live in a marginal constituency. We got a hint of the difference when UKIP did so well in the European elections, but this time it’s going to be BIG.

I hope I’m wrong. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the margin is 55/45. But a clear anti-EU anti-establishment vote is going to happen.

Or I’m going to have a lot of humble pie to eat – but I will be happy, because we, and the world, will have dodged a bullet that would have put us all on the road to another recession, probably far worse than the one in 2008.

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